Confidence is rebounding among midsize companies, according to JPMorgan Chase’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey, with chief financial officers (CFOs) expressing significantly greater optimism about the national economy compared to last year. The survey found that 65 percent of midsize business finance leaders are confident in the U.S. economy—more than double the 31 percent recorded in 2024. This sharp increase represents the largest single-year gain since the survey began tracking sentiment in 2017, reflecting what Chase described as “a fundamental shift in business sentiment.”
“Businesses are entering 2025 with positive momentum after navigating a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected,” said Ginger Chambless, head of research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. “This resilience is fueling a renewed focus on growth.”
Confidence in company-specific performance is even stronger. Seventy-five percent of midsize business CFOs expressed optimism about their company’s prospects for the year ahead. Revenue growth expectations are high, with 74 percent of CFOs predicting higher revenues in 2025, and 65 percent anticipating increased profits. Hiring plans are also on the rise, with 51 percent of respondents saying they intend to expand their workforce—up seven percentage points from last year. Only 8 percent of midsize CFOs expect a reduction in headcount, underscoring the shift from caution to growth.
When it comes to strategies for achieving this growth, innovation takes center stage. The introduction of new products and services emerged as the leading approach, closely followed by strategic partnerships and investments. This focus on fresh ideas and collaboration signals a forward-looking mindset among midsize companies as they position themselves for success in a competitive environment.
Despite their strong confidence in the national economy, CFOs remain wary of global conditions. Only 29 percent of midsize business CFOs expressed optimism about the global economy—a marked improvement from last year’s 10 percent, but still relatively subdued. More than half (51 percent) of respondents reported feeling neutral about global economic prospects, while 20 percent expressed outright pessimism. According to JPMorgan Chase, this cautious sentiment reflects ongoing geopolitical challenges, including military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as concerns about shifting global trade patterns and tariff impacts.
Meanwhile, costs remain a persistent challenge for midsize businesses. Seventy-seven percent of CFOs reported rising expenses, while only 2 percent noted a decline. This trend underscores the lingering pressure of inflation and other economic headwinds, even as companies turn their attention toward growth opportunities.
The survey also included responses from 1,003 small business CFOs with annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million. While their outlook was generally positive, it was slightly less optimistic than that of midsize companies. Among small business CFOs, 66 percent said they do not foresee a recession in 2025, compared to 71 percent of midsize CFOs. Confidence in the national economy among small business respondents rose to 55 percent, a 12-point increase from last year, but still trailed the significant jump seen among midsize companies.
Revenue expectations showed a similar gap. Sixty-six percent of small business CFOs said they anticipate higher sales in 2025, compared to 74 percent of midsize CFOs. Both groups, however, were aligned on profitability, with about two-thirds expecting an increase in profits this year.
While optimism about the future is growing, the survey highlights the challenges and uncertainties that still shape the economic landscape. As midsize and small businesses (SMBs) alike navigate these complexities, their resilience and adaptability remain critical to sustaining growth and driving long-term success.
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